An Increasingly Familiar Sight

OK. First things first. We’re out of the Champions League, Arsenal are still in the Champions League. Financially, we’re operating against a backdrop of hundreds of millions of pounds worth of debt whilst Arsenal’s finances would appear to be the healthiest in Britain so this might seem like unnecessary and unwanted concern but I can’t help but wonder what is going on down there.

For all our battles down the years – particularly during the period between the late 90s and early 2000s – Arsenal are probably the side I have the most respect for.

Over the last twenty years or so, we have consistently been challenged in the league by Arsenal with appearances by teams such as Blackburn, Newcastle, Chelsea and now Manchester City.

However, what all those teams (except Arsenal) have in common is that their success was built to a greater or lesser degree on the bankrolling of a rich owner. Like ourselves, Arsenal have generated their own finances but they have probably done things even better than us in that respect – certainly with Arsene Wenger at the helm.

It is in this area that I have always had a lot of respect for Arsene Wenger as I will touch on in a moment.

When Arsene Wenger first arrived at Arsenal back in 1996, he took over a decent, albeit ageing, team (they had won the Premier League in 1991 and the FA Cup in 1993) and they probably had the best defensive line-up in the league with the likes of Seaman, Adams, Keown, Winterburn, Dixon, Bould etc. Add to that the superb Bergkamp assisting Wright in attack and the exciting Merson in midfield, he arrived with work to do but the basics of a side capable of challenging for the league.

Over the next few years, he used his knowledge of French football to bring in players such as Viera, Petit, Grimandi and his best to date – Henry – as he started to dismantle the old and build the new Arsenal of his own vision.

He did this with incredible success winning three Premier League titles and four FA Cups over the next seven years or so culminating in their last league success with the team that became known as “The Invincibles” having gone through the entire league campaign without losing a match.

I think it is fair to say that at this stage, most people expected Arsenal to go on winning for years to come but an FA Cup the following year has been their only silverware since the year of the Invincibles and whichever way Arsene Wenger dresses it up, that has to be viewed as failure.

As I said, one thing that I was always very impressed with Wenger about was his uncanny knack of buying players for a relative pittance, getting their best years out of them and then selling them on for a profit when they were just edging beyond the crest of their wave.

I would love to see some figures for Wenger’s net transfer balance in the sixteen years or so that he has been at Arsenal and I don’t believe that he has paid over £20million for any one player which is extraordinary for a team that has been a regular in the top four for as long as Arsenal have.

However, it is this that has perhaps caused Wenger to come in for the most criticism. The building of the Emirates stadium did, for a time, suck up a lot of money and so Wenger could be forgiven for not splashing the cash – he probably didn’t have it in abundance but I simply cannot believe that a club which has participated in fourteen consecutive Champions Leagues and has operated so prudently in the transfer market has no money for transfers new stadium or not.

I know that this has been a source of bewilderment amongst the press down the years and, probably, some frustration amongst the fans and it has largely been put down to Wenger’s stubborn attitude to do things “his” way i.e. youth, youth, youth.

But I’ve been watching Arsenal from the outside for several years now and it seems almost as though Wenger gets a bunch of kids, they don’t win anything, they (obviously) get older and are then replaced with a younger model. The word appears to be “potential” but potential is worthless unless realised and Wenger never seems to give the potential the best environment in which to thrive and become realised.

Youth is great and with the likes of Wilshere, Ramsay and this new lad Oxlade-Chamberlain (who was a joy to watch on Sunday, I have to admit) Arsenal have some riches to be envious of but Alan Hansen, for all the stick he has received since, was not entirely wrong when he said “You can’t win anything with kids”. For every Neville we had an Irwin/Pallister/Bruce, for every Scholes we had a Cantona/McClair, for every Beckham we had a Robson/Keane/Ince etc. The young replaced the old but there was always a period of overlap.

Of the current crop, Robin van Persie is probably the exception to the rule in that he did come along as a youngster, served his time backing up the likes of Henry et al and is now the main man there but at 28 years of age and at the height of his powers, he seems a prime candidate to either be sold by Wenger or seek a move elsewhere of his own accord – I would not be totally shocked if he is not at Arsenal next season.

At United, we are constantly bringing “kids” through the ranks into the first team and we also buy some in from abroad. It is probably fair to say that at least 95% of them don’t make it but those that do come through in a team full of players brimming, not just with playing experience but, more importantly, winning experience. As a result, we have continued to win things whilst Arsenal have spent much of the last six or seven seasons missing out and it is perhaps this which separates the exceptional manager that Wenger undoubtedly is from the truly great manager that is Sir Alex Ferguson.

That’s not to say that Fergie has always got it right and has finished above Wenger every season. In the 2004-05 season, we finished a distant third behind Chelsea and Arsenal but Fergie saw what was wrong and quickly went about putting things right and within a couple of years, we were back on top.

Looking at Arsenal now, they look no better or further on than they did five or six years ago. It has been a period of consistency for them but they have consistently been second, third or even fourth best.

If anything, it could be argued that they have actually been going backwards. Certainly the table today makes for grim reading for anyone Arsenal-related as they sit in fifth and five points behind four teams who are all playing better football and have better squads than them and Newcastle and Liverpool are now breathing down their necks.

The Champions League places are obviously still not totally out of reach for them but some bookies are offering as much as 5/2 on them to finish in the top four.

On the subject, Wenger was recently quoted as saying, “For me, not making the top four would be a disaster. Because I want to play with the best. We want to play in the Champions League and anything else would not be good enough.”

I have no doubt that it would be a disaster for Arsene but not necessarily for Arsenal FC. One way or another, a failure to finish in the top four (or worse) could be seen as a watershed moment and would surely have to make Arsene Wenger finally realise (or, at least, reluctantly acknowledge) that his policies aren’t working and persuade him to revise his principles which, whilst admirable, would have been proven to be flawed… again.

Of course, the other option, would be for the decision to be removed from Arsene Wenger’s hands altogether. At this stage, it is only his reputation that is keeping him in position and that reputation is becoming more and more tarnished with every passing season.

Naturally, after the drubbing we gave Arsene Whinger’s boys at Old Trafford earlier in the season, this one has attracted all kinds of speculation as to what might happen this time at the Emirates and whilst nobody believes we will see a similar scoreline most do expect there to be several goals in the game again.

Personally, I have a feeling that it could go the opposite way with both teams playing very cagily.

After a disastrous start to the season followed by an incredible, Van Persie-inspired run of results, Arsenal are currently going through another little dip and the prospect of them not even qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in (fifteen?) years is looking a very real possibility.

However, it has been on their travels where Arsenal have suffered most; at the Emirates, they have been very strong and have only suffered the one defeat there this season (their very first home game of the season against Liverpool when Arsenal were struggling and Liverpool were full of optimism for the new season).

They have conceded just six goals at the Emirates in the league but, somewhat unusually for Arsenal, have scored just sixteen which from ten games is not the stuff Arsenal have been renowned for down the years and they do rely far too heavily on Van Persie to provide the goals.

As for us, well, the injury situation does appear to be resolving itself which means that Fergie will have a decent number of players to choose from and it is just as well because this match represents the start of a tough set of fixtures which we will do well to come through unscathed.

I actually have a feeling that Fergie won’t pick what we might by now consider to be his “strongest side” for this one. Park might get the nod somewhere in midfield (he seems to have a happy knack of scoring against Arsenal) but as for the rest, it’s anyone guess but I think there’ll be a couple of surprises.

I’ve been on a bit of a roll with the bets of late and I suppose that run has to end at some point and it could well be today because I’m going to go slightly against the general consensus for the bet here.

The bet is 2 points Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.1 with BetVictor (the new name for Victor Chandler).

Well... it looked like his head at first glance. Anatomy & Physiology Classes for all, methinks.

As us Manchester United reflect on the fact that the worst possible scenario over the weekend has come to fruition, it all has an air of inevitability about it to me, especially after Chelsea were again the beneficiaries of the doubt when it came to the big decisions in their match against Tottenham.

However, this is not about Chelsea. We knew full well that we had to concentrate on our own task and win our own games and, if we did that, then it wouldn’t matter one jot if Chelsea were awarded a goal every time the ball came within a yard of their opponent’s net or not.

But, like the away match against Chelsea a couple of months ago and the away match against Liverpool a few days later, we failed to deliver in a Premier League away match against a big rival when it mattered most and we must now hope that we can make amends when our chance comes at Old Trafford next weekend. It would certainly be the worst possible time to lose our first home game of the season but as this weekend has shown, nothing can be discounted or taken for granted against Chelsea.

As for yesterday’s game… well… I was quite happy when I saw the positive starting line-up which was a sort of 4-4-2 with Rooney helping out in midfield but as the first half progressed, I became more and more bemused by the role Anderson was playing.

Arsenal were all over us for huge portions of the first half and we couldn’t even get the ball for long periods of play and it looked very much like were were playing with ten men and I put that down to Anderson who was neither here nor there as far as I could see.

He played one or two very good passes when he did eventually get the ball but apart from that, I could not see any point to him whatsoever. He seemed to be getting himself into acres of space which is all well and good when we have the ball but he seemed to be doing it when Arsenal had the ball (which was most of the time) too which left me wondering – who, exactly, does he expect to win the ball back from Arsenal?

Carrick often plays in this way but the difference between Anderson and Carrick is the fact that Carrick does it well. It is something which is often overlooked by Carrick’s critics but, if you watch Carrick closely, you will notice that he is always looking to get into a position that prevents a ball forward by the opposition. Anderson wasn’t doing this and just seemed to be standing as far away from play as possible which meant that Arsenal had free passage through the midfield.

I am aware that I am being extremely unkind to single him out here because other midfielders like Park (who fell asleep in the build-up to Arsenal’s goal), Nani and eventually, Valencia, didn’t have their most effective days either and because of this under-performing midfield, Rooney was drawn further and further back which all combined to ensure that Hernandez had one of his quietest games since joining us. There was simply very little support for him and virtually no service and on the occasions when he did seem to get into a good position, he found himself offside.

And then there’s the penalty decisions.

The first went against Arsenal as Vidic seemed to handle a cross destined for Van Persie’s head. All I can say about this one is that every tv commentator I have heard initially believed Vidic had headed the ball when the incident was viewed in real-time and myself and the people I was watching the game with were all initially congratulating Vidic on a great piece of defending. It was only when Van Persie ran away screaming at the linesman that Vidic had used a hand that the replays were brought out which showed that Vidic’s head was nowhere near the ball whilst his hand most certainly was.

It was slightly bizarre, however, because the ball didn’t appear to deviate in its flight which may have suggested that Vidic actually got nothing on the ball but the fact that a corner was awarded to Arsenal clearly shows that all concerned believed that he did.

For all of Vidic’s great points, it is these moments of madness which have many a United supporter shaking their head because it did look like he knew what he was doing with his hand and it could easily have led to a penalty and a red-card for Vidic which would have ensured that he would play no further part for the rest of the Premier League campaign. Crazy.

However, there were three other penalty appeals (two of which were ignored completely on Match of the Day last night).

The first was when an Arsenal player appeared to grip Evra’s arm between his chest and his own arm and tugged him to the ground. To be honest, I am sure that Evra possesses the physical strength to extricate himself from what would have hardly been a vice-like grip and did appear to be looking for it. It would have been a soft penalty.

The second was when Aaron Ramsey clearly handled the ball. The referee blew for a free kick and indicated a spot some two yards or so outside the area but it was nowhere near that far out. Ramsey started inside the box and jumped forward as he handled and so his finishing position was some distance from his starting position. TV replays showed that the contact was actually made when the ball was on the line – which is a penalty. Again, the benefit of the doubt should probably be given to the officials who are not blessed with stop-motion vision but it was another case of how tiny margins can have enormous consequences.

The third was a stonewall penalty though and I cannot believe that the referee didn’t see this one. There is absolutely no excuse.

A delightful ball played forward from Rooney should have seen the deadly Michael Owen through one on one with the keeper but Owen, who has made a career on opportunities such as those, fell to the ground and replays showed that Clichy clearly took Owen’s leg out from behind and there was nothing subtle about it.

This was the one incident that Match of the Day did show and, predictably, claimed that it evened things up after Vidic’s “handball” earlier in the game. Indeed, Sky Sports commentator and ex-Arsenal player Alan Smith seemed to claim after every United penalty appeal that they evened things up as each one went by! Perhaps we would have been awarded a point had we won the game 3-1 had he been in charge of proceedings?

All things considered though, I think Arsenal probably deserved their win. We simply did not perform well enough to merit a win whilst Arsenal played at least as well as us during our good patches and better than us during their good spells.

What is slightly concerning at this stage is how difficult we seem to be finding it to score from open play. We actually had more shots than Arsenal in this game and twice as many of ours were on target but Szczesny was rarely troubled, in all honesty.

Having said that for all Arsenal’s pretty passing and superior possession, Edwin was rarely troubled either except for, obviously, the goal.

What is worrying about this is that the title race has now come down to a basic shoot-out between ourselves and Chelsea and should the unthinkable happen next weekend and Chelsea take the three points, they will go ahead on goal difference and I wouldn’t back us to outscore them to take the title at this stage.

The good news is that we have enjoyed two very good wins over Chelsea in the Champions League recently and we are more than capable of delivering a third at Old Trafford next Sunday.

At this stage, I would rather be three points ahead with Chelsea to play at OT than three points behind with Chelsea to play at Stamford Bridge. We’re making life typically difficult for ourselves though and I just hope that next week the officials don’t make it any harder.

The first of two fixtures that could determine the destination of the title begin this afternoon as we make our way to the Emirates to play what could well have been a title decider but, due to Arsenal’s woeful form and inability to hold a lead, is now “just” a pretty big obstacle in the way of us and our nineteenth title.

It has to be admitted that Chelsea’s win yesterday heaps considerable pressure on us to get something out of this game and whilst three points would obviously be great, a point will do.

Fergie was quite bullish in his press conference the other day when he said:-

“The slant I seemed to be getting is that Arsenal and Chelsea are expecting to win these games and change the top of the league,” stated Ferguson.

“Why can’t we win these matches? Surely, given the form we are in, we can.

“It is not going to be any easier for Arsenal or Chelsea than it is for us. These are difficult games.”

It’s hard to argue that we haven’t proved more than capable of beating Chelsea having just beaten them twice in the Champions League and we have handed Arsenal a few beatings in recent seasons, too.

That doesn’t do much to stop my bum from twitching though and it has nothing to do with the vindaloo I had last night.

Fortunately, the United players appear to ice flowing through their veins at the moment and have passed several big, big tests of late and, looking at this one as objectively as possible, Arsenal really should fear us more than we fear them at the moment because they have been failing the tests week after week since their Carling Cup final defeat at the end of February.

Both managers would seem to have a full squad to choose from for this one and it is going to be interesting to see if Fergie goes with Berbatov who has apparently recovered from the “groin strain” which has kept him out since missing a sitter against City in the FA Cup semi-final or will he go with the dynamic duo of Rooney and Chicharito? There can be no denying that Berba has been left out of several of the “bigger” matches so far this season and I would expect this to continue today with Berba perhaps given the nod in the midweek Schalke match.

Arsenal’s home form has been generally very good – they have obviously drawn too many games of late but they do remain unbeaten at the Emirates since Tottenham beat them 3-2 in November last year.

Our away form has got better in recent months but it has still been a cause for concern and, as mentioned yesterday, I heard a stat the other day which I found quite surprising – we have not beaten a team in the top half of the table away from home all season!

That stat is not strictly true right now though – we did beat Stoke 2-1 in October and they currently lie tenth in the league – just about in the top half!

Anyway, today would be a good day to set that particular record straight and we are perfectly capable of doing so. I just feel that we’re going to come away from the Emirates with a point though.

Coming up with a bet for this one is difficult because there are so many ways that it could pan out. The bookies feel that it is going to be a low-scoring match and quite probably a 1-1 draw but I can certainly see 2-1 or perhaps even the 3-1 we achieved here last season.

I cannot believe that Arsenal will win this game but there is the possibility that they won’t do one of their recent suicide jobs because the pressure is largely off them now and so if they have a lead with minutes to go, they may well have the wherewithal to hang onto it this time.

My gut feeling is a draw with a slight bias towards a United win and so I am going to go into the Asian Handicap market for this one.

The bet is 3 points Manchester United +0,+0.5 @ 1.78 with Stan James.

Yesterday’s match against Everton was kind of how I expected it to be – I had a feeling we would dominate but given our mini-goal drought in the last couple of games, I had a worry that we wouldn’t be able to make it count.

That we finally made the breakthrough so late on was no massive surprise although I had hoped that we would make it sooner but there you go… we got it in the end and that is all that matters at this stage.

The same can’t be said for Arsenal though who are currently in the most unbelievable string of results. Five draws in their last six games looked very much like being six in seven this afternoon but it got even worse when Bolton scored late on to win 2-1 and leave Arsenal pointless.

Just a day after Wenger had been saying that he believed that his team would win the league with five straight wins, his team shot him in the foot with their first defeat in seventeen games.

It was a result which just about puts a lid on Arsenal’s title challenge for another season and means yet another trophy-less season for the Gunners.

Arsenal clearly have the players to win things because their early season form was frightening at times but, when it comes to the crunch, when the silverware is within reach, they… it has to be said… bottle it. Eight points from their last nine games is more like relegation form than championship form and there’s no getting away from that.

And that’s where we have been showing our true colours in recent games. Yes, there were the blips against Liverpool and Chelsea but since then there have been gritty wins against Bolton, West Ham, Fulham and Everton. These are the kind of games that Arsenal have been drawing of late and now those dropped points have proven the difference between champions and a likely third placed finish.

Of course, our next league game is against Arsenal at the Emirates and now that the pressure is off them, I expect them to play well in that game but you do get the impression that an Arsenal win at this stage will do Chelsea’s cause more favours than their own because, make no mistake about it, Chelsea are still very much in this title race and are coming good at just the right time. In the fullness of time, it might be shown that it was all too little, too late from Ancellotti’s boys but 22 points from a possible 24 in their last eight games is obviously almost as good as it gets.

At this stage, I would love us to go to the Emirates and get the win which I believe we are well capable of and then go into our Old Trafford showdown against Chelsea knowing that a win would clinch us the title.

To have that trophy paraded around in front of the outgoing champions would be a moment of beauty but this is Manchester United and we don’t tend to do things the easy way.

I think there’s still some mileage in this title race – even though there’s only four games left to play.

It’s Manchester United v Chelsea and, in truth, it always was.

After taking a 3-1 lead and taking a 1-0 “last-minute” lead against Liverpool in the previous game only to blow them both, combined with the recent draws against the likes of Sunderland, Blackburn and WBA, I can only conclude that Arsenal don’t actually want to win this Premier League title. That is ten points dropped in their last six games right there and if only half of those points were taken, they’d be breathing right down our necks at the moment with the destination of the title very much in their own hands.

As it stands, they now sit in third place in the league and are third-favourites to win the league with Victor Chandler offering as much as 15.00 for them to win it.

Chelsea, on the other hand, took full advantage of our dropped points against Newcastle and swept Birmingham aside 3-1 last night and even Ancelotti has done an about-turn and now believes that the title is not beyond them.

Looking at the state of play right now, it does seem that we have a massive two and a half weeks ahead of us and by the night of Sunday, 8th May 2011 we will either be celebrating on the streets or twitching nervously over a league table that shows us still at the top of the table but perhaps only on goal difference.

In case you don’t know what I am referring to here, check out our next five games:-

• Everton (H)
• Schalke (A)
• Arsenal (A)
• Schalke (H)
• Chelsea (H)

That is what our season now boils down to (I’ll forget the possibility of a Champions League final against Barca or Real for the moment – that’s too much for my heart to take right now).

Five games.

Four wins and a draw or perhaps even three wins and a couple of draws from that handful of games will be enough to get the corks popping again whilst a defeat or two will really have us in squeaky bum mode.

I know a lot of Manchester United fans will rage at this but, personally, I would gladly accept defeats against Schalke for three wins in the other games.

Fortunately, we have a Manager and a set of players who will probably accept nothing less than five straight wins… and I wouldn’t put it past them. Come on United!

After Saturday’s depressing performance and defeat in the FA Cup semi final against Manchester City, we needed something to pick us back up and yesterday’s draw between Arsenal and Liverpool did the job nicely.

With the scores locked at 0-0 as the 90th minute approached, it did look like we would be taking a six point lead into our game against Newcastle but when Arsenal scored their late penalty, United hearts sank even further but when Liverpool were awarded, and scored, a late, late penalty of their own it dealt a massive blow to Arsenal’s title chances whilst strengthening our own massively.

At this moment in time, we are six points ahead with a six goal advantage in the goal difference column with six games left to play.

Our price with the bookies has now moved into as low as 1.08 in places whilst Arsenal’s own price has now drifted out to 13.00 in some places which is actually higher than some bookies are going about Chelsea.

The two games against Chelsea and Arsenal loom large on the horizon but it would now appear to be the case that only two defeats for us in those two games could potentially put the skids under our charge to that nineteenth title.

Of course, it continues tomorrow evening against Newcastle which could be a tricky game but one which if we can win will put Arsenal under enormous pressure when they travel to White Hart Lane on Wednesday evening and if there’s anything that can be read into the fact that Arsenal have drawn four of their last five games then perhaps it is that they are not handling the pressure too well.

It hasn’t been a great couple of weeks for either of these two sides as we’ve lost our last two league fixtures whilst Arsenal have also dropped valuable league points and were utterly destroyed by Barcelona in the Champions League.

This fixture represents an opportunity for one of the sides to put a much needed smile on the faces of their fans.

On top of the results, both teams are also now suffering from key players out injured.

It is expected that both managers will put out their strongest possible sides for this one although in our case, quite what that means in terms of the wide midfielders is anyone’s guess at the moment.

I expect this to be a good game though. I don’t see any point in either side being cagey for this one. It’s a chance to let out some frustrations and have a good, old-fashioned ding dong at one another. The winner gets a place in the FA Cup semi-final, the loser can put more focus into winning the Premier League and, in the case of Arsenal, that will then become their only focus.

With this in mind, and the fact that the game is being played at Old Trafford – where we remain unbeaten all season – I think the price is right to go for a straight United win here. Neither team will want a draw and a replay from this one.

The bet is going to be 3 points Manchester United to Win @ 2.00 with Victor Chandler.

Undoubtedly our biggest game of the season so far, this is surely one we have to win if we are to take advantage of Chelsea’s stuttering form and put some daylight between Arsenal, Manchester City and ourselves. That we can go top with a win tonight and still have a game in hand over the rest is a very strong position to be in but Arsenal do seem to have a little more steel about them in recent games and will come here looking for their first league win at Old Trafford for over four years.

We have been very good at home so far this season and have the best home form in the league but Arsenal have the best away form which makes this one all the more intriguing… and more difficult to predict.

I am not going to over-analyse this one. It really does have the feel of a Cup Final type game where anything could happen on the day and previous results between the teams don’t really count for much here but I do feel that we are going to win and it could end up fairly comfortably – perhaps 2-0.

Key to the bet winning, however, is likely to be our ability to keep a clean sheet but I think we can manage that.

The bet is going to be 2 points UNDER 2.5 goals @ 1.97 with Bet365.