Well, it doesn’t seem like five minutes since I was sitting here writing about our masterplan for winning this group with a couple of games to spare which would render this one all but irrelevant but we’ve hit a couple of bogeys in this competitions since then and suddenly a result from this, our last game of the group stage, becomes crucial.

A draw tonight will see us through. A win tonight could see us win the group – but not if Benfica win against Otelul at home. Basically, it is looking very much like we’ll be playing to finish second in the group which really isn’t great for a team that is as experienced as us in Europe after being given what looked like a “dream group” at the start.

I saw the interview a couple of weeks ago where Fergie stormed out after a journalist suggested that the English clubs had “struggled” in Europe this season and I could see both points of view. The English teams have struggled by our standards so far this season but I could also see why Fergie was disgusted by the comment because there is an insinuation that English clubs only have to turn up and take their three points without the 90 minutes battle on the pitch in between.

Of course there is a “struggle” in that respect and if people expect to go into a Champions League game (the cream of Europe, let it not be forgotten) and have an “easy” game then they are underestimating and being completely disrespectful of the achievements of the teams that have qualified for the competition. No one gets into the Champions League by being a useless side and none are pushovers.

I made the point in a recent post that perhaps some of the players couldn’t get their juices flowing for these “lowly” group games anymore but my view has changed somewhat of late and I do wonder if it is the fans who don’t get going of late. These are massive, massive footballing occasions. Perhaps not Champions League semi-finals but there are plenty of teams that dream of getting into the Champions League whilst us Man Utd fans perhaps take it all for granted these days.

We turn up, we qualify and then we play against the glamour clubs in the latter stages – that’s the way it has been for several years now but I think we take it for granted that the players don’t actually need our support to do so anymore.

Of course, this is an away tie and Basel’s crowd will be outnumbering our own by a considerable amount anyway – we had our chance at OT and we blew it. We now do have to hope that the players give their all where perhaps we have not but should the worst happen, I hope that fans will not totally exonerate themselves from blame.

Ok. Rant over.

In this game, we have a bit of a striker dilemma which I actually believe will help us. Chicharito is injured, Berba is injured, Owen is injured. That leaves Rooney and Welbeck and I hope that Fergie just goes with Wayne right in front of goal – where he should be all the time as far as I am concerned.

Forget Rooney the midfielder, Rooney in behind, Rooney out on the wings, Rooney starting from defence – just stick him up front – right in that 20 yard square area directly in front of goal – that is how he had his record-breaking scoring run a couple of seasons ago and is the way to go as far as I am concerned.

Played there, Rooney will score the goals required – it is then up to what has become once again a pretty miserly defence to keep Basel out at the other end.

So, I’m not going to go overboard on our scoring this evening but I’m going to rely on us keeping Basel out and doing what need to be done at the other end.

I think this bet will win.

The bet is UNDER 2.5 goals @ 2.00 with Victor Chandler.

With this being the penultimate match in our Champions League group stage and being between the top two teams, separated by just a single goal in the goal difference column, it is probably fair to say that it is the group decider.

Basel will still have something to say about the final placings but the winner from this one will certainly qualify from the group and will fancy their chances of finishing in top place.

Our performances in the Champions League so far this season have generally left a lot to be desired. We have won the last two against Otelul Galati but neither performance was convincing and 2-0 in each game probably flattered us, to be quite honest. I’ve said several times that had Galati had a decent striker in their side then we could have been found out in both games.

However, whilst Fergie and the players have obviously sorted things out at the back and we are starting to look a lot less vulnerable, it has come at the expense of the free-flowing, high-octane, “cavalier” style that saw us score shedloads of goals at the start of the season.

With so much at stake going into this match, I have to believe that we will be seeing more of the “safe” football from our players tonight.

Benfica proved to be quite a handful when we played them at their place in the opening fixture of this group and looked particularly strong in defence.

What all this points to, to me, is a game where neither side will be particularly adventurous, will try to keep things tight at the back and grab the one goal that could prove to be the winner.

The bet will be 2 points Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 with Victor Chandler.

Firstly, apologies for completely missing the Everton match out. As some of you may have noticed, the website was completely down for much of Saturday due to a problem at my hosting company’s end and so I simply couldn’t get my preview online.

As it happens, I’m not sure that I would have won the bet because I was convinced beforehand that we would need to score more than one goal to win the game as I was quite certain that Everton would score. However, we kept a clean sheet which was great to see – even if it was just by the thickness of a goal-post.

Anyway, this post is about Otelul Galati who come to Old Trafford this evening for our fourth Champions League Group Stage match.

We finally got a close look at Galati in our last match when we played them over in Romania a couple of weeks ago and they were a decent side – well organised and capable enough but they just lacked quality and composure in the final third. Our 2-0 scoreline made it look like a comfortable evening’s work but it was anything but comfortable in truth and it was only when Rooney put away his second penalty right at the death that we were able to consider it won.

However, they come to Old Trafford this evening with their Champions League campaign hanging by the thinnest of threads and it will be interesting to see how they respond to that set of circumstances. On the one hand, it might inspire them to just go for it or they might just crumble under the pressure. Their strikers looked nervous enough when we played them in Romania, quite how they will perform tonight is anyone’s guess and could go either way when the adrenaline kicks in.

Domestically, they have got their act together a bit since we played them and they have won their last three games although they have been close with Galati scoring just five goals in those three games and winning each by just one goal. Interestingly – and perhaps tellingly – all five of their goals were scored by midfielders and defenders (Defender Sarghi and Midfielder Paraschiv grabbing two each).

As for us… well, obviously, we’ve had mixed fortunes since we last played Galati but after conceding six against City, we have managed to keep two clean sheets in our last two games and we have generally looked a bit stronger defensively for a little while now – that City results sticks out as a complete aberration.

There are a few stories of injury problems doing the rounds at the moment. Giggs remains injured but he is now definitely joined by Smalling who has broken his foot and apparently Young (some sort of toe injury?) and the seemingly luckless Tom Cleverly who has picked up another ankle injury. Vidic misses out through suspension.

However, Fergie still has plenty of other options at his disposal and with this being our first game at OT since the City debacle, I’m sure he will want the players to go out and give the home fans a proper show and let anybody else watching that Old Trafford remains a formidable place to visit and one or two dodgy results haven’t changed that.

He will undoubtedly remind them of our last game at OT when we played Basel and almost got the shock of our lives when we became extremely complacent at 2-0 up and almost ended up losing the match 3-2 and will surely let the players know that any repeat of that will see the hairdryer make a comeback.

So, I can see a pumped up United out there tonight and I really wouldn’t want to be a Galati player right now. There will be goals from United in this game, that’s for certain. A goal from Galati would be something of a surprise but I suppose it cannot be totally ruled out.

The bookies believe this will be something of a massacre too it seems and we’re as low as 1.08 with some of them to win the match and as low as 1.35 to win by two clear goals. In fact, you have to go with the notion that we can win by three goals in order to get a decent price.

I think it has to be remembered that whilst we perhaps laboured to the 2-0 win in our last game against Galati, we ourselves went into that game under some pressure after our own indifferent start to the campaign. Had we won our opening two games then we may well have won that one far more convincingly and I think we would have scored earlier.

Galati don’t concede too many and so there’s an element of risk to this bet but I really do believe that we can play with a bit more relaxation in this one tonight – not complacency and not taking Galati lightly – but back to our more free-flowing football where the players play on instinct rather than thinking about every little detail.

Galati are almost certain to be overwhelmed by the occasion and, if we can get at them early and grab an early goal then I do believe that we can go on to score at least three.

The bet is 2 points Man Utd -2.5AH @ 2.02 with Bet365.

Given that we appeared to have been handed a very “easy” group stage this season, I think most people expected United to be sitting at the top of it with at least four points next to our name by this point – I certainly did but whilst the draw against Benfica away was perhaps a decent enough result, the nature of our 3-3 draw against Basel at Old Trafford still rankles with me and we now find ourselves under a bit of pressure.

I might be totally out of order here but I do wonder if, after three Champions League Finals in four years (and a quarter final in the other year) we are starting to get a little too complacent and perhaps even “irritated” by these group matches. Do we perhaps see them as “small fry” that must be endured before we get to the meaty stuff that are the quarter-finals and the semi-finals etc?

Would it perhaps have actually been better had we found ourselves drawn in a group similar to the one Manchester City have found themselves in?

The way we surrendered that 2-0 lead at Old Trafford against Basel was one of the most un-Manchester-United-like things I have seen in an awful long time and suggested that we basically switched off and felt that the game was as good as won. Complacency.

Well, if that was indeed the case then the result of taking any team in this competition lightly is now there for all to see and there is now just a faint hint of an alarm bell ringing and it is hoped that this provides the wake-up call that we need and we get our campaign back on track in this one.

I must admit that I don’t know much about Otelul Galati other than that they qualified for this tournament by winning the Romanian Liga I last season but have been quite underwhelming so far this season and are in mid-division after ten games played.

Looking at their two previous games in this group stage tells the story of their season it seems. They have lost both games but only by narrow margins (2-1 and 1-0) and scoring goals appears to be their main problem. They have scored just eight goals in their ten domestic league games.

Of course, with the way our defence has shaped up at times this season then this might be the game where they suddenly become a goal machine but it is hard to see it and I do actually believe that our defence is looking a little more settled of late and certainly De Gea inspires a lot more confidence than he perhaps did in his opening couple of matches for us.

So, I am generally of the opinion that Otelul won’t score more than one goal in this game if they score at all but that we continue to show that we always have a goal or two in us – especially when we need a goal or two.

This is another tricky one to bet on though as there are too many unknowns however, I feel that if we are going to win this game then we will win by a good couple of goals and the price isn’t too bad on such a thing happening.

The bet is 3 points Manchester United -1.5AH @ 1.82 with Victor Chandler.

If everything goes as expected in this group then we’re probably going to be watching the two teams that will progress from Group C here tonight and so this does appear to be – on paper, at least – our toughest game of the group this season.

However, the way we are playing at the moment, I would fancy our chances of progressing from a group which included any three other teams in the world. There really does appear to be a buzz around Manchester United at the moment and, after perhaps three or four seasons of a more restrained, considered, patient style of play, the shackles have been loosed and the players have just been told to get back to the old ways of “we’ll score more than you”.

Whether this will be carried over into this competition (which remains something of a Holy Grail for Fergie) remains to be seen and already we have seen reports from the boss that he is likely to go with a more experienced line-up for this one. In some respects, his hand has been forced in one or two positions as the impressive young Cleverley has now joined the impressive young Welbeck on the treatment table following the ligament damage he suffered against Bolton at the weekend.

What this meant was that Carrick played virtually the whole match against Bolton which we won 5-0 and so I’d expect him to continue in the middle for this one. This then leaves the boss with a decision to make about Anderson and it may well be that he decides he deserves a breather for this one and with Fletcher in need of a game, this might be the time for it although Giggs made an appearance against Bolton and so he could be the one to come in.

Whoever the boss picks, he needs to get it right because it is almost certain that Benfica will play with a five-man midfield and whoever plays in the midfield will have to expect a busy shift which perhaps tends to suggest that players like Fletcher and Park might be the better options.

In defence, it looks like we’ll look more or less the same as we did against Bolton but, of course, Smalling will likely go back to the right with Evans and Jones in the centre (although, the way Jones played on the right against Bolton, it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see Smalling take the central berth). Evra will likely play on the left and De Gea, who appears to be finally settling after a shaky start, has to be allowed to continue in goal at this stage, I would have thought.

Up-front, I cannot see any further than Rooney and Hernandez with Rooney perhaps dropping deep to help out in that busy midfield.

And that team should have more than enough to cope with whatever Benfica have to offer. The only question is how ambitious we want to be in this opening game. Given the challenge we face domestically this season, there does seem to be an enormous advantage to putting this group stage to bed as soon as possible and, if it can be done in four or five games then that will obviously pay dividends by Matchday Six which comes just before the busy Christmas period.

So, if it is true that this perfectly winnable game for us is going to be the toughest challenge in the group then it does perhaps make sense to just go for it and attempt to win the game.

We will probably know how we intend to go about it within five minutes of the kick-off. If we come bursting out of the blocks and go straight for the jugular then we’ll be going for the steamroller job here. If we come out playing cautiously then it could well be that Fergie is eyeing something similar to what we did against our away opponents last season – keep the clean sheet and attempt to nick a goal for a 1-0 win.

Personally, I just feel that United are playing with such fluency at high tempo at the moment that Fergie couldn’t hold them back even if he wanted to and we’ll just end up playing our natural game and with the rich scoring vein some of our players are in at the moment coupled with the fact that Benfica don’t appear to be the strongest team defensively, I can only see goals. Rooney, in particular, appears to be on a mission to make this his best season ever both in terms of overall performance and in terms of goal-scoring and I’m sure that he’d love to finish this tournament as the highest scorer.

As for a bet in this one, I am actually sorely tempted to go for the -1.5 AH on Manchester United which can be had at 3.70 with Bet365 because I really do believe that we can win this one quite comfortably but I suspect that that would require us to keep a clean sheet and Benfica are certainly capable of scoring (and, of course, we are certainly capable of conceding – clean sheets haven’t really been our strong point so far this season) so I think I’m just going to stick with the outright win for United.

We can win it, it goes without saying that a win is the result that would benefit us the most for numerous reasons and I do believe that this is what we will be going out to achieve.

The bet is 3 points United to win @ 2.05 with Unibet.

Stitched inside the badge of every Manchester United shirt is a word and it says simply: “Believe”.

Before a ball was even kicked in this tournament this season, Barcelona were installed as favourites whilst we have fluctuated around third and fourth favourites for much of the time. Truth be told, we have had a reasonably comfortable passage in this year’s tournament with the quarter-final against Chelsea by far and away our biggest challenge but it was a hurdle many believed we wouldn’t be able to clear AND win the Premier League title at the same time.

These people didn’t Believe.

Even now, few people believe that we can pull this one off this evening with some bookies pricing us at an insultingly high 4.00. I cannot remember the last time we were priced so high to win a game of football but I would guess that it might have been when we played Barcelona in the Cup Winners Cup Final twenty years ago and, as I mention yesterday, we all know what happened on that occasion.

I am under no illusions that winning this match will be easy. Barcelona have played some fantastic football this season and if the trio of Iniesta, Xavi and Messi are allowed to pull the strings as they were allowed to pull them when we played them in the 2009 Final, we will be in for all kinds of trouble but I would like to believe that Fergie and the players will have learned a few lessons that evening and history will not be repeated on that score.

After an initial flurry from Manchester United which almost saw us take the lead, we were sucker-punched by Eto’o after just ten minutes and it looked for all the world that we basically stopped playing from that point onwards. It was a very subdued performance, given the enormity of the occasion and, at times, it looked like the players were no more than spectators as they watched one of the biggest games of their lives evaporate into nothing before their very eyes.

This time round, I hope that we take a bit of that 1991 spirit into the game and make it happen for ourselves by pressing Barca as high up the pitch as we possibly can. Cut off the supply from Barca’s backline (because this is where it all starts for them), get in their faces and let Puyol and pals deal with the electric pace of Hernandez, the power of Rooney and the persistance of Park.

Make no mistake about it, we have the personnel to make this the hardest game Barca have had to play all season and if we play to our potential then we can win it.

No doubt Fergie will spring a surprise with his starting line-up but I would like to see the following:-

Van Der Sar, Rafael, Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra, Valencia, Giggs, Carrick, Park, Rooney, Hernandez.

O’Shea may be drafted in in place of Rafael and the midfield of Carrick and Giggs may well be different but I think that that team has the qualities required to let Barcelona know that they have a game on their hands and that 4.00 about United to win this game could look pretty silly.

However, I can still see a close game here, it will be all hands to the pumps and everyone will need to be at the top of their game to keep the likes of Messi out for ninety minutes but I believe we can do it. The quality of this United team has been underestimated all season and I think the bookies have done it again here.

However, I have to ensure that emotion is not ruling my head with my betting predictions and so I think I will go for another market which I think offers some value here.

The bet is 3 points on Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 2.05 with William Hill.

BELIEVE!

Schalke in Training - I'm saying nothing...

This is one of those games that comes around now and again in the Champions League where I really don’t know what to make of it because we’re up against something of an unknown quantity who have been going great guns in this competition whilst playing poorly in their domestic league.

In fact, if this was a group stage game then I would probably be predicting a fairly routine win for United here based solely on Schalke’s Bundesliga form (they have lost six home games so far this season and are sitting in the middle of the table).

However, it’s not a Group Stage game – it’s a Champions League semi-final and several teams have perhaps under-estimated Schalke in this tournament so far and have come back from the Veltins-Arena with burned fingers as they have won all of their home games so far and usually by comfortable two or three goal margins.

To add to the murkiness of this tie as a whole, Manchester United supporters won’t need reminding that we have never beaten a German side over two legs since this competition became the Champions League back in 1992 and three of them have knocked us out in Quarter and Semi-Finals down the years with last season’s disaster against Bayern Munich being the most recent.

So, that’s the doom and gloom out of the way.

The positives are the fact that, like our quarter-final, we play the first leg away from home and so we must be confident of progress should we come back from Germany with almost any result that involves a goal for us whilst Schalke’s best hope of progress would seem to be getting the kind of win here this evening that few teams have managed against us away from home in this competition for a long time.

On the team front, it looks like Fergie has a fully fit squad to pick from although Berbatov has been left behind as he is still suffering from the “groin strain” that kept him out at the weekend so it will be interesting to see if Fergie is going to start with the Rooney-Hernandez partnership from the off in a 4-4-2 or go with Rooney alone in the 4-3-3/4-5-1 type formation he often favours away from home in this competition.

Schalke rested several players over the weekend in preparation for this match but they should all be back tonight, including that wily old campaigner, Raul who will obviously keep our defenders busy.

So, what will happen tonight? I have no idea. Our goalscoring has dried up a little in recent games and we haven’t been prolific scorers in this competition all season anyway. Schalke, on the other hand, have been.

Will Schalke change tack and play a cagey game or will they just go for it and attempt to grab the kind of first leg win which will give them plenty to defend back at Old Trafford? Will we play the cagey game and attempt to grab a 1-0 like we did against Chelsea or will we go all out to try to put this tie to bed in this first leg?

I do get the feeling that whilst the latter would be out of character for us, that it is the kind of thing we are more than capable of doing.

The bookies feel that this is going to be a low-scoring game and it could well be but I just feel that we have enough to get a result here tonight. Most of our players have been here before and should make that experience count.

My predictions have gone up the wall a bit recently and this could be another that goes down in flames but I’m going for the United win.

The bet is 2 points United to Win @ 2.37 with Stan James.

One phrase we’re all likely to be hearing and using quite a lot over the next six weeks or so is “this is a massive game” but this one really is, “a massive game”.

It looks very much like the winner of this tie will be playing Schalke in the semi as opposed to the widely expected Inter Milan and, with all due respect to what Schalke have achieved in the competition this season, not least their 5-2 win at the San Siro last week, I suspect that both of these sides will fancy their chances against them over two legs where either Real of (more likely) Barca will be waiting.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here, this tie has to be won first of all and whilst we took a step towards progress with our 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge last week, it is a tenuous lead which could be overturned in the blink of an eye.

The good news for this match as a whole is that both managers have, any last minute disasters aside, fully fit squads to choose from. Our only doubt is Rafael who was, of course, stretchered off in the first leg of this tie but Fergie did say in the pre-Fulham press conference that there’s a chance he’ll be fit for this match. O’Shea and Brown are both fit though so the right-back position would appear to be amply covered whatever happens.

With full squads to choose from, the main problem for the respective managers will be who to go with in the attacking positions. Chelsea obviously need to score and, I suspect, we will need a goal or two of our own before the end of the day.

Ancelotti would appear to have a big decision to make on Torres who just can’t seem to get off the mark for Chelsea.

As for us, well, Rooney is eligible to play in this one despite currently banned from domestic matches but Berbatov showed on Saturday that he’s still getting amongst the goals and remains the Premier League’s top-scorer although it is a long, long time since he last scored in this competition. I wonder if this might be the game where the two are re-united, though.

Predicting what will happen here tonight is very difficult. Games between us do tend to be close and are often low-scoring but I can’t believe that this one will be a cat-and-mouse affair. Unlike a Premier League game where a draw might be considered a decent result for both teams, a draw will only suit one of us tonight – Chelsea have to win.

I have a feeling that this one is going to be a much more open affair as one goal (for either side) will lead to the other side going all out for a goal themselves which could lead to them being hit on the counter as both sides can spring forward and score very quickly.

It’s not the most confident of predictions because there are so many ways this game can pan out but I think I’m going to go for the Over bet here. I just have a feeling that we’re going to see some goals tonight.

The bet is 2 points Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 with Betfred.

Results over the weekend meant that while we strengthened our grip on the Premier League title, Chelsea all but relinquished their own grip on the trophy which they won last May and the Champions League probably now represents their only chance of silverware this season.

Not that Chelsea will be complaining too much about that if they go on to win the thing because no one there has made any secret of the fact that this trophy is the one they have wanted for years now. They always tend to get to the latter stages of the competition but their best ever showing was in 2008 when, of course, we beat them in the Final (or not, if Petr Cech is to be believed!)

That victory was one of our few successes over Chelsea in recent years and our record at Stamford Bridge of late has been extremely poor. However, as I have said time and time again, games between us are usually extremely tight and, (call me bitter but…) are quite often decided by a dodgy bit of refereeing. It’s certainly about time we had a stroke of luck in that direction, at any rate.

What is going to be interesting this evening is to see how we go about the game. When we played Chelsea in the League a few weeks ago, we were pegged back for a few minutes at the start but then pretty much bossed the first half before Chelsea came roaring back in the second half to win 2-1. If we can reproduce some of that play and grab that all-important away goal then perhaps even a repeat of the scoreline wouldn’t be the end of the world.

However, I have a feeling that tonight is going to be another low-scoring affair and could even end in a 1-1 draw (which would be a fantastic result for us). The way Fergie was talking in his press conference suggests that all we are looking for in this game is a position from which we can win once we get them back to Old Trafford.

The news coming from the treatment room is encouraging, especially if Rio Ferdinand really is ready to start this evening because the partnership of Rio and Vidic remains formidable and could be crucial in this match.

Overall, I do expect a more open game than we have been used to down the years but whether this will lead to more goals than usual remains to be seen. The bookies think that this one will be a low-scoring game and there’s no value at all in going for the Under bet (2-1 either way remains a credible scoreline).

Finding a decent bet in this one is not an easy task but I think that I’m going to go for something which offers a decent price but makes no real prediction on the result or the number of goals scored.

The bet is going to be 2 points on Both Teams to Score @ 2.05 with Coral.

The first leg of this tie was a largely dour affair which ended 0-0 which wasn’t a great result for either team. The lack of an away goal could prove costly for us and Marseille now know that a score draw will be enough to send them through this evening.

However, we have been a completely different side at home this season and so Marseille may be ruing the fact that they didn’t press more for a winner of their own whilst they had the chance on their home turf.

The slightly difficult part about predicting what might happen this evening is down to the fact that it is almost impossible to determine who is injured and who isn’t.

Some reports have suggested that Nani could make an appearance but, having seen the gash he suffered to his leg, I simply cannot believe that he has recovered from that so quickly.

Other reports suggest that Vidic could be out for tonight’s game with Wes Brown starting alongside Smalling in the centre of defence. Clearly this would be a blow if true.

And then we have the dilemma of who starts upfront. I tend to think that Berbatov will be re-introduced this evening with Rooney playing his usual support role from the left. I’d like to see Valencia resume his right sided role having come through the second half against Arsenal looking as good as ever.

What is going to be interesting to see tonight is how positive we are. We were extremely positive against Arsenal even though it left us more open at the back and it was only down to some great saves from Van Der Sar that we came through that one unscathed – whether we will have the courage to do the same in the Champions League remains to be seen. With the personnel likely to be on show tonight, I suspect it will be more of a slow tempo game between two teams with extremely miserly defences in the Champions League this season.

However, I just have a feeling that something is going to give here tonight and that we’re not going to see another low-scoring game. If Marseille score a goal, we will have no alternative but to really go for it and I have a feeling that they will score a goal tonight.

The bet is going to be 2 points OVER 2.5 goals @ 2.1 with Stan James.